Unwilling to Serve
Pentagon Faces a Manpower Shortage
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Geopolitical situation. Global tensions are rising. Chinese military threats are increasing as it continues to grow its military and become more belligerent. Russia has been an on-again, off-again problem since the early days of the Soviet Union. Russia’s war with the Ukraine has merely exacerbated the situation.
The situation elsewhere on the globe is worsening. Iran claims its nearing a nuclear weapons capability and North Korea has been test firing long-range rockets around the Pacific. Biden Secretary of State Anthony Blinken suggested US support for Taiwan security was softening. Chinese leaders may view this as a green light for military action against the island nation.
One may conclude after surveying the current state of Afghanistan and the Middle East, and noting the military rise of China and the belligerence of Russia, and unpredictability of rogue nations such as Iran and North Korea that the US is not any more secure than it was on September 10, 2001. There may not be an attack on the homeland, but a major military conflagration could break-out just about anywhere.
This is why it is worrisome the Pentagon is experiencing its worst manning situation in the 50-year history of the all-volunteer military. The nation’s military may be stretched to near the breaking point. Servicemen and women are exhausted after repeated oversesas deployments. Dissatisfaction has risen. Recruiting has fallen significantly. Retention is starting to look shaky. And there is no relief in sight.
Recruiting Shortfalls. Acting Undersecretary of the Air Force Kristyn Jones testified before the Senate earlier this year warning, "[T]he Air Force will likely fall short of enlisted active duty recruiting goals by over 10%. The reserve and guard are projected to miss their goals by even higher margins."
Jones echoed echoed the testimony of her counterparts at the Army, Navy and Marine Corps who issued similar warnings in a March 2023 Senate committee hearing.
The four major uniformed services (Army, Navy, Marines and Air Force) are struggling to meet recruiting goals. Last year, the four services fell nearly 20,000 recruits short with the lion’s share of the shortfall (about 15,000) belonging to the Army. The Navy and Air Force each came up more than 2,000 recruits short. The Marine Corps barely met its recruiting goals.
The situation has become so dire the services are rolling back hiring goals, lowering standards, increasing enlistment age limits, and giving waivers to events that were previously barriers to entry. The Army is offering personal medals to soldiers who make a recruiting referral.
There are several factors why military recruiting is coming up short. Poor health and fitness, lack of education, prior drug use, and criminal records disqualify 3 of 4 young adults aged 17-24 unless they get a waiver, the services told Congress. In recent years, some enlistment standards have been loosened.
In an attempt to make-up the difference, the Navy recently ordered its recruiters to work six days a week. The Navy will also accept the oldest recruits. An enlistee could join the Navy as long as they report to boot camp prior to the 42nd birthday. Some would consider this approaching middle-age.
Officials have also noticed the pool of likely recruits is getting smaller. A senior Army official reported 80% of Army recruits come from a military family.
Dissatisfaction. Those inclined to join up may be dissuaded by the current military environment. Multiple overseas deployments for the troops is not surprising. American University Professor David Vine, who studies US troop presence abroad, reports the US has approximately 750 military bases, big and small, in about 80 countries worldwide. In 2021, there were reportedly 170,000 US troops stationed overseas. That figure has risen dramatically.
The Pentagon reports it sent additional deployments across the Atlantic following the Russia invasion of the Ukraine. There are now more than 100,000 US troops stationed in Europe. The Defense Department acknowledges there are more than 30,000 in the Middle East, and media reporting indicates about 85,000 are in the Pacific theater. About 215,000 US troops are stationed outside the US with no plans in place to draw down those numbers.
The Navy surveyed its entire workforce of more than 7,5000 surface warfare officers, those commissioned officers who primarily serve onboard ships. The results were sobering. Less than half of the officers in the three lowest paygrades (O-1, O-2, O-3) are interested in serving as commanding officers. For centuries, command-at-sea was the pinnacle of a maritime career. Lack of desire for achieving command is like a minor league ball player expressing disinterest in moving up to Major League Baseball.
Seven in 10 junior officers believe promotions are not equitable in a career that had largely been defined as based on meritocracy. More than 80% believe the best talent is leaving the Navy. Clearly, the Navy has a serious problem on its hands.
Out of harm’s way from combat does not necessarily translate to being safe-at-home. The Navy has struggled with extended maintenance periods when ships enter shipyards for major overhauls. These are generally the most hated assignments for sailors. Case in point, the aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73) recently completed a six-year stint in the shipyard that included a string of nine sailor suicides during that shipyard period.
It was three suicides in just the month of April 2022 that drew nationwide attention. Hundreds of sailors spent their entire duty assignment onboard the George Washington while in the shipyard. A Navy investigation found GW sailors endured some the worst work and quality of life conditions throughout the entire Navy.
Endless Wars. To most observers, the US military has not fared well since before many of the young adults being recruited were born. The swift collapse of Afghanistan in August 2021 following a bungled withdrawal of US forces hastened the return of policies that were in place in Afghanistan before September 11, 2001. Nothing was gained in America’s longest war that cost taxpayers more than $2 trillion and left nearly 2,500 servicemen and women dead.
Americans left stranded when the US military abruptly ended evacuation operations were forced to finagle their way out of the country with the help of other western nations. No one knows for certain how many Americans were abandoned. Afghan partners left behind numbered in the thousands, if not tens of thousands, with many at risk of being victims of retribution by the Taliban.
The elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about is seemingly endless wars. The US military has been engaged in near continuous fighting in one corner of the globe or another since September 2001. This has led to back-to-back-to-back deployments for some, seriously damaging family relationships and upending work-life balance that is so very important to today’s young adults.
In the past two decades, Republicans and Democrats alike were quick to pull the trigger on US military intervention. Barack Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize as a rebuke to his predecessor. Before long, Obama launched wars in Libya and Syria, and he fueled the Saudi-led war in Yemen. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate even let it be known he was personally approving drone kill targets. He ordered his first drone strike three days after taking office that killed an Afghan family including children. At least three Americans are known to have been killed in Obama’s drone strikes.
Politics at the Pentagon. Defense policies pushing critical race theory, teaching sailors pronoun usage, and alleging military ranks are teeming with white supremacists insult the very demographic that has historically joined up in the largest numbers. Victor Davis Hanson, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, called it “a near-suicidal U.S. Army policy” for Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman General Mark Milley to attack the white males who volunteer to serve. These harsh attacks by Austin and Milley, which they did not back up when challenged, were contradicted by data showing there is less extremism among veterans than society at large.
In response to the Navy’s pronoun training video, former Navy SEAL Robert O’Neill who gunned down Osama bin Laden offered some commonsense advice. O’Neill tweeted there is only one pronoun in the Navy: shipmate.
Influencers. Usually, the biggest influencers when counseling a young adult to join-up are parents, especially if either one is a veteran. According to a survey of military families, a majority would recommend military life, but that percentage is trending down from 74.5% in 2019 to 62.9% in 2021. The percentage who would not recommend the military life spiked by nearly half from 25.5% to 37.1% during the same timeframe. It should be setting off alarms when an increasing number of servicemembers do not recommend the military to their own children.
It's likely 50 years of the all-volunteer military service may be influencing matters. In the age of the draft, there was likely a more even distribution of veterans throughout all demographics of society. Today, veterans are consolidated among smaller constituencies where military service is still considered honorable, and legacy enlistments continue from one generation to the next. This may explain why just 9% of today’s young adults have a propensity to serve, according to the Defense Department.
COVID Lockdowns. Face-to-face recruiting took a major blow during COVID-19 lockdowns when schools closed and high school and college students engaged in remote learning.
Some of the current personnel shortages did not happen organically. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Defense Department involuntarily separated more than 8,000 servicemembers who objected to mandatory vaccinations. DoD ended the vaccination mandate late last year with no plans to reinstate the furloughed forces.
Did the vaccines even work? It was probably not lost on the vax reluctant servicemembers that the USS Milwaukee (LCS-5) was sidelined from service for nearly two weeks in 2021 due to a coronavirus outbreak despite the fact the 105-person crew was 100% immunized.
Looser standards. In response to recruiting challenges, the services are relaxing eligibility standards including waiving some minor criminal history, increasing the maximum age of enlistment, and modifying health and well-being standards. Last year, the Defense Department relaxed its physical fitness and body composition standards, and allowed the services to adopt liberal criteria on how to interpret what constitutes being physically fit “to successfully perform in accordance with their Service-specific requirements, missions, and military specialties.”
The DoD action followed Military Times reporting, “[t]he U.S. military is fatter than ever.” The military-focused paper reported servicemembers diagnosed as clinically obese skyrocketed from 1 in 60 in 2001 to 1 in 13 in 2016. The military has gotten fatter indeed.
Lowering standards for entry may be self-defeating in the long run. Laurence R. Iannaccone suggested in a 1994 paper that an institution’s “strictness increases commitment, [and] raises levels of participation.” Lower standards would bring in the slackers, the free-riders. This may explain why the Marine Corps, while facing the same challenges of the other services, is having better success in recruiting and retention. This says nothing of elite units such as the Navy’s SEALs which has far more applicants than it could possibly accommodate.
If patriotism is not a motivator then maybe money is, the services are theorizing. The Army is offering recruits bonuses up to $50,000 merely for joining up. Gabe Camarillo, Under Secretary of the Army, testified before the Senate that recruiters are given bonuses of up to $150 for each enlistee over their assigned allotment. Junior soldiers are being offered ribbons and promotions for making a referral who enlists.
Public attitudes. Adding to military woes is the loss of prestige. In a 2017 survey, 70% of respondents said they had “a great deal of trust and confidence in the military.” That fell to 45% last year. Nearly two-thirds found military leaders had become too political. According to Hanson, “The Pentagon’s current and past top echelon is seen as politically weaponized – and both careerist and opportunist.”
Compounding matters is the public’s growing unfamiliarity with the military. According to Army spokeswoman Madison Bonzo, “75% of 16- to 28-year-olds admit they know little or nothing about the Army.”
The sense of patriotic obligation, that drew millions to recruiting offices as far back as the Civil War, has waned. For two years running, Gallup polls found less than 40% of adults are “extremely proud” to be an American. Twenty years ago, the figure was 70%.
What about role models? Was Pat Tillman the last military hero? Pro football player Tillman famously turned-down a multi-million dollar contract renewal and gave up his NFL career to instead enlist the Army following the September 2001 attacks. Tillman epitomized selflessness. The most prominent servicemembers featured in the press and in social media in recent years have been disgraced Army deserter Bowe Bergdahl, and Pete “Maverick” Mitchell, a figment of the imagination of Hollywood.
Generation Z. The target demographic for officer and enlisted recruiting programs is ages 17-24. This age group falls into Generation Z. So far, Gen Z have shown very little interest in the military. There appears to be a confluence of reasons why this is so.
Authors Neil Howe and William Strauss made the claim in a 2007 paper that “[g]enerations follow observable historical patterns” and there are just four patterns that are in perpetual cycle. If accurate, then Generation Z (2000-2025) is the latest iteration of the Silent Generation (1925-1942) that “focused on discussion, inclusion, and process … but not on decisive action.”
In later life, the Silent Generation “became America’s leading civil-rights activists, rock and rollers, antiwar leaders, feminists, public-interest lawyers, and mentors for young firebrands.” They did not distinguish themselves in the military as did the generations that preceded (GI Generation) and followed (Boom Generation) them. Maybe America is undergoing a generational phase.
Gen Z appears to be less self-sufficient, less independent-minded than prior generations. In 1997, 43 percent of 16 year olds held a driver’s license. That fell to 25% in 2020.
Then there is the personal drama. According to a series of surveys conducted by McKinsey & Company, “Gen Z respondents reported feeling more emotionally distressed (25 percent), almost double the levels reported by Millennial and Gen X respondents (13 percent each), and more than triple the levels reported by Baby Boomer respondents (8 percent).” Four in 10 have been diagnosed with a mental health condition including ADHD, depression and anxiety. Merely being in the right place at the right time may be more than they can handle.
The services have been struggling with how to reach Gen Z. Advertising campaigns no longer focus on the “bigger than yourself” mantra that worked well for decades. Instead, the services attempt to appeal to one’s self-interest.
In 2005, the Army took flak for its cringe-worthy “Army of One” advertising campaign. Aside from Rambo, there is no Army of one. By definition, an army is a whole lot of people. It recently tried a different approach, but it’s 2021 commercial flopped when the public ridiculed it as being “woke.” The Army disabled the YouTube comments section because of public blowback.
The Air Force appears to be completely out-of-touch with Gen Z. The last two Air Force chiefs of staff were featured in recruiting videos (here and here). There is skepticism that 18, 19, and 20-year olds will be inspired to enlist after watching generals in their late 50s reminisce about their 30-year careers.
Fewer Workers. Complicating matters is the dwindling pool of bodies due to low birth rates. Dr. Anthony Carnevale runs Georgetown University’s Center on Employment and the Workforce. He noted, “[W]e're moving into an era when there's going to be very limited growth in the number of workers available in America and there are going to be very high retirement rates at the same time. So we're probably looking at long term shortages.”
The last four decades of secondary education priorities may be playing influencing matters. In the 1980s the federal government began using taxpayer dollars in a carrot-and-stick approach to pressure secondary schools to focus almost exclusively on college-bound students. As Carnevale described it, students became college-ready, not career-ready. Parents, especially Baby Boomers, demonized the skilled trades (e.g. anything that has to do with manual labor) and counseled their children they should go to college even if it wasn’t the best fit. Get a college degree and a job in a cubicle was the advice. The result? There are nationwide shortages in the skilled trades such as mechanic, plumber, electrician, farmer, and the military.
Benefits & Competition. For years, the military offered benefits not found with other employers. Aside from free healthcare, the services offer a retirement pension in an era when most workers fall under a defined contribution plan. Defined contribution workers must pay into a fund such as a 401(k) to achieve that retirement nest egg. In contrast, servicemembers only have to serve a minimum of 20 years to receive a pension.
However, the gap in the benefits offered between the military and private industry is starting to close. A recent survey of military families revealed less than half (47.3%) of active duty families were satisfied with the care they received in Tricare, the military healthcare system.
Since the end of World War II, there have been education programs available where a servicemember can gain a bachelor’s or graduate degree without accumulating any student loan debt. Forbes magazine reports more than half of today’s college students have taken school loans. The average amount of federal student loan debt owed is more than $37,000, according to the Education Data Initiative.
The competition for workers has gotten so intense that even businesses hiring unskilled, low-wage workers are offering education assistance for high school and college degrees. For example, McDonald’s provides flexible hours and tuition assistance in order to attract and retain employees.
Summary. Current trends and data suggest military manning shortfalls will worsen in the years ahead. There does not appear to be an easy or a quick-fix. The only wild card is the economy. A significant recession that would spike the unemployment may be the only event that sends young adults to a recruiter’s office.
Mark Hyman is an Emmy award-winning investigative journalist. Follow him on Twitter (X), Threads, Gettr, Post, and Mastodon.world at @markhyman, and on Truth Social at @markhyman81.
His books Washington Babylon: From George Washington to Donald Trump, Scandals That Rocked the Nation and Pardongate: How Bill and Hillary Clinton and their Brothers Profited from Pardons are on sale now (here and here).
Served in the Navy 1965-1991. I now think of that as the Golden Era. Looks like you have covered the problem very well.
Student loan debt for many non-military has been washed away--maybe one factor among all the others. The apparently low jobless rate (and lower work-force participation rate) could be another.